Norris Trophy Prediction — Is Victor Hedman a Lock?

After eleven weeks of the NHL season there have been some standout D-men, but only one can walk away with the Norris Trophy. Many believe the trophy is already locked up for the reigning Conn Smythe Trophy and Stanley Cup Winner, Victor Hedman, who is putting together a stellar campaign.

Let's take a look at one defenseman from each of the other three divisions who have positioned themselves to realistically enter the conversation in the final stretch of this season, and what they would need to capture the trophy as the league's best defenseman.

John Carlson, Washington Capitals

Carlson is coming off of a career year in which he finished second place in Norris voting. He finished with a whopping 60 assists to go along with 15 goals in just 69 games played. That maps out to a staggering 1.09 points per game, first among defenseman. Unfortunately for Carlson, Nashville's leader Roman Josi edged him out in voting to capture the trophy.

This season, Carlson has not lost a step. Through 38 games, he has registered 10 goals and 22 helpers, putting him third in points among defenseman and fourth in goals. One surprising stat for Carlson this year is his +/- rating, which is a -6 overall despite the fact that the Capitals have been enjoying great team success. Despite that -6 rating, Carlson has played himself into the Norris conversation with his offensive prowess.

Since taking Mike Green's spot on the powerplay and as the Capitals best defensive weapon in 2015, Carlson has developed into a powerplay specialist and a leader. I currently rank the US born defenseman third in the Norris conversation.

What would Carlson need to do in his remaining 18 games to win the Norris? A lot. Carlson needs to improve his +/- rating. Since the league began tracking +/- in the 1959-60 season, the Norris trophy has been won by a player with an overall negative +/- rating only 6 times. His goal scoring and point-getting is undoubtedly elite at the position, but his defensive play must improve. Additionally, I believe if Carlson has hopes of capturing his first career Norris, it would certainly help if the Capitals go on to win the East division.

Ultimately, and this will be said for each of the other two players on this list as well — Carlson needs Hedman to slow down if he wants the Norris.

Drew Doughty, Los Angeles Kings

The next guy we will take a look at is a fierce competitor and proven winner for the Los Angeles Kings. In a rebuild year for the Kings, Doughty has proven he has plenty left in the tank. The 31-year-old Doughty, who is on the back nine of a hall of fame career, leads the league in time on ice per game, and has 27 points in 36 games on the year.

Although it is unlikely that they will qualify, Doughty's leadership on the blue line still has the Kings in the conversation for the final playoff spot in the West. He does everything for the Kings and plays with his heart on his sleeve every night. Similar to Carlson, Doughty suffers statistically from a +/- rating of -3.

To me, it's simple. If the Kings somehow make the playoffs and Doughty continues to lead the league in time on ice per game, he will have a case for the Norris — of course this scenario also requires Hedman slowing down.

Darnell Nurse, Edmonton Oilers

To me, the most intriguing player on this list is Darnell Nurse. The Oilers big man was nowhere near the Norris conversation prior to this season, but he has stepped up to the plate and become a powerhouse on the Oilers back end this year, with 12 goals (already a career high) and 15 assists. His 12 goals are league best at the position, and he also sports an unbelievable +/- rating of +20, which is among the best in the league.

Nurse posts over 25 minutes per game, and has helped the Oilers into second place in the North division with his play. McDavid and Draisaitl, who are first and second in league scoring, will get most of the attention and credit for Edmonton's success this season, but Nurse's play has been impressive in a different way.

Let's put things in perspective for Nurse. Prior to this season, Nurse's most productive campaign came back in the 2018-19 season, when he posted 10 goals and 41 points in a full 82 games, with a +/- rating of -5. With his current numbers, Nurse would be on track to post about 25 goals and 58 points, with a +/- of +43. He has been a dominant physical force and emotional drive for the Oilers in this breakout season, and has earned his place in the Norris discussion.

As far as I'm concerned, the Norris is a two horse race. Yes, anything is possible, and yes, Carlson and Doughty are having great seasons, but at the end of the day, it's shaping up to be a Hedman vs. Nurse vote. Unfortunately for Nurse, it's Hedman's trophy to lose at this point. If Nurse continues to dominate in the +/- column, add some points here and there, and the Oilers continue to win, then he is well positioned. Even all of that together, though, might not be enough due to the elite offensive and defensive play of Hedman this year.

The final verdict — voting prediction

Victor Hedman has been the best defenseman in the league this season. If he continues to play as he has been, the Norris is locked up. BUT! Anything is possible in the NHL, and perhaps Hedman will enter a slump, and one of the three players on this list will capitalize. With that said, I have to place my bets on Hedman given what I have seen so far this year. Here is my prediction for how the voting will shake out.

1. Victor Hedman

2. Darnell Nurse

3. John Carlson

4. Drew Doughty

5. Cale Makar

6. Adam Fox

7. Charlie McAvoy

8. Shea Theodore

9. Jeff Petry

10. Quinn Hughes