The Stanley Cup Formula & Why the Lightning Should Repeat

When it comes time for the Stanley Cup Playoffs, there is no fool-proof strategy for picking a champion. There will always be upsets, unexpected heroes, and injuries, which make it so hard to predict. We need not look far to remember Joel Kiviranta's hat trick that launched the Stars past the stacked Colorado Avalanche and into the Western Conference Final last season.

Already this season a Pittsburgh Penguins team, which mostly outplayed the Islanders, fell in six games, much due to the lackluster goaltending performance from Tristan Jarry. Up North, the Oilers fell in four straight games to the Jets, who they dominated all regular season long. The Capitals got walked by the Bruins in four straight games after winning game one at home. There will be unexpected series outcomes, but over time I believe there are three things to weigh when picking a Stanley Cup Champion.

1. Top Two Centers

Center is the position that covers the most ice over the course of a game and carries the most responsibility of the five skaters on the ice. A solid two-way center can dictate play in a way that wingers and defenseman cannot. If we look at recent history, the last five Stanley Cup winning teams tend to have an excellent one two punch down the middle of the ice and great overall depth at the position.

2020 — The Tampa Bay Lightning had Brayden Point leading the way as a dynamic offensive weapon who was also solid in the defensive end. To make up for the loss of Steven Stamkos, they were the deepest of anyone in the league at center with Anthony Cirelli, Tyler Johnson, Yanni Gourde, and Blake Coleman all spending time in the middle.

2019 — If there is one exception to this rule it is with the St. Louis Blues. While Ryan O'Reilly is a top centerman in the NHL today, the supporting cast is less impressive. Behind him, the Blues deployed Tyler Bozak, Brayden Schenn, and Robert Thomas. Make no mistake, this team was strong at the position, but they did not sport the elite one two punch that the others in the last five years had.

2018 — On their way to the franchise's first ever cup win, the Washington Capitals' top two centers in Nicklas Backstrom and Evgeny Kuznetsov outplayed every other center duo they faced with 23 and 32 points, respectively. Behind the big guns, they had Lars Eller and Chandler Stephenson. Not too shabby.

2016 and 2017 — It's so hard to win one Stanley Cup, but to repeat? Truly remarkable. To accomplish such a feat, it helps to have two generational talents playing center in Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin. Crosby won the Conn Smythe Trophy in back-to-back years. Behind the big guys they had Nick Bonino and Eric Fehr, who are solid depth centers.

2. Superstar Defenseman

Similar to the importance of two dynamic centers is having an elite puck moving defenseman on the blue line. The ability to join the rush and still have the speed and wherewithal to know when to cut back and play defensive minded hockey is invaluable. That's why you see teams like Vegas willing to spend so much for an Alex Pietrangelo, or how instant the impact has been of Cale Makar in making the Avalanche Stanley Cup favorites in his second season. The last five Stanley Cup winners all have one, and they always lead the team in time-on-ice.

2020 — Conn Smythe Trophy winner Victor Hedman was unbelievable in the bubble last year. He can jumpstart the rush, shut down the opponent, has great offensive awareness, checks well with his stick, and has the 6-foot-6 frame to go with it. He led the Bolts with an average of over 26 minutes per game, and a +13 rating to go with it.

2019 — The aforementioned Alex Pietrangelo was similarly great in the Blues cup win. He was a leader and played in all situations. He plays with less finesse and is less offensive minded than a Victor Hedman, but makes up for it with how well he uses his body. Pietrangelo led the Blues with almost 26 minutes per game and was +5.

2018 — John Carlson was the guy for Washington. He played in all situations and was an amazing +11 during their run, despite playing almost 26 minutes per game and doing most of his damage on the powerplay.

2016 and 2017 — The 2017 Penguins are the exception, as their star d-man was injured and the team willed their way to the cup by committee on the back end. In the 2016 cup win, however, Kris Letang averaged just a hair under 29 minutes per game and was a +6. What Letang lacks in size he makes up for in quickness and vision. He's been a dominant, game controlling defenseman for years.

3. Reliable Goaltender

What more needs to be said? To win the cup, you need a true number one goalie to emerge from the pack. You cannot win without one.

2020 — Andrei Vasilevskiy was the only goalie to appear for the Lightning in last year's cup win. He is a Vezina winner and will continue to be in that conversation for years to come. He sported a .927 save percentage and a goals against average of 1.90, including a shutout in game six to clinch the Stanley Cup.

2019 — Jordan Binnington appeared in every game and missed only 26 minutes to Jake Allen in the entirety of the playoffs. He was exceptional, producing a .914 save percentage and had a goals against average of 2.46 en route to his first Stanley Cup. He has taken a step back since then, but was amazing during the 2019 playoffs.

2018 — Brayden Holtby didn't own the crease to start the playoffs, but ended up playing in 23 of the Caps' 24 games, putting up a .922 save percentage and 2.16 goals against average. He also had two shutouts, coming in game six and game seven of the Eastern Conference Final to take down the Lightning in one of the most clutch goaltending performances of recent memory.

2017 — In the Pens' second straight cup win, the team rode the duo of Marc-Andre Fleury and Matt Murray, who both performed extremely well. Fleury and Murray had a .924 and .937 save percentage and 2.56 and 1.70 goals against average, respectively. Murray took over for Fleury in game four of the East Final against the Senators, but both were great when they needed to be.

2016 — Their 2016 win was a more straightforward case of workhorse netminder, as Matt Murray started 21 of the 24 games in the playoffs and had a .923 save percentage and 2.08 goals against average. Murray is no longer considered an elite goalie in the league, but his playoff performances in 2016 and 2017 cannot be denied.

Ranking the Remaining Teams

The system I will use to predict the outcome of the playoffs is ranking the teams on each of the three criteria above, giving ten points to the first place, nine to second place, and so on. Then I will add the team's score from each category. Obviously this strategy has holes and ignores some important factors, but let's give it a shot!

Center Depth

1. Tampa Bay Lightning (10 pts) — Point, Stamkos, Cirelli, Gourde, Coleman. So many great options. They had the most center depth last season and still do.

2. New York Islanders (9 pts) — Barzal, Nelson, Pageau, Cizikas, Zajac . Win by committee is always the theme on Long Island, and it works for them. With Zajac on the wing, they can hide his lack of speed. This is the most well rounded center corps, everyone is solid.

3. Winnipeg Jets (8 pts) — Scheifele, Dubois, Stastny, Lowry, Copp, Appleton, Perrault. The Jets, while not deep defensively, are stacked up the middle of the rink with so many options.

4. Carolina Hurricanes (7 pts) — Aho, Staal, Trocheck, Necas, Lorentz. Necas has been playing well on the wing, and they can afford to keep him there with the wealth of center talent they have.

5. Boston Bruins (6 pts) — Bergeron, Krejci, Coyle, and Lazar. Bergeron is elevating his game and Krejci is still a great player despite his age.

6. Colorado Avalanche (5 pts) — MacKinnon, *Kadri, Compher, Jost, Bellemare. Despite the fact that MacKinnon is probably the best remaining player in the playoffs, there isn't great talent behind him. They make up for it on the wings. (*Kadri is serving a suspension)

7. Toronto Maple Leafs (4 pts) — Matthews, *Tavares, *Foligno, Kerfoot, Engvall, Spezza. Without Foligno and Tavares, this is a top two center group in the playoffs right now. With the injuries and unsure timelines, they have to fall all the way to seven. (*Both out with injuries)

8. Montréal Canadiens (3 pts) — Suzuki, Kotkaniemi, Danault, Staal. They are young on the top end, while Danault is more of a defensive presence and Staal is not what he once was.

9. Minnesota Wild (2 pts) — Eriksson Ek, Rask, Hartman, Sturm. A very unintimidating group, but they are getting the job done and have a chance to advance with a win tonight. At least they hace some great two way players and grit here, something Vegas lacks.

10. Vegas Golden Knights (1 pt) — Karlsson, Stephenson, Roy, Brown. Make no mistake, this team is build on the wings and on defense.

Best Defenseman

1. Tampa Bay Lightning (10 pts) — Victor Hedman is the best defenseman in the league, but he is playing through injury which is hindering him. Despite that, he is still elite.

2. Colorado Avalanche (9 pts) — Cale Makar is a superstar in the league and is no doubt the next best remaining defenseman. The difference is that Hedman has won, Makar has not.

3. Vegas Golden Knights (8 pts) — Shea Theodore and Alex Pietrangelo come in third and fourth for me as the best defenseman remaining, so take your pick. Either nomination puts the team at third here.

4. Boston Bruins (7 pts) — Charlie McAvoy is right there with the top dogs. He has shown what he can do this season and the Boston blue line will belong to him for a long time.

5. Carolina Hurricanes (6 pts) — Dougie Hamilton is more offensively minded, but he brings a ton to the table. Don't be fooled by the fact that he is fifth on this list, he is still one of the best in the game today.

6. Toronto Maple Leafs (5 pts) — Morgan Rielly has been fairly quiet lately, but he is still a good defenseman. I have doubts whether or not he can be the leading man on a cup winning team, but he will have the chance to prove it.

7. Minnesota Wild (4 pts) — The Wild are like the Islanders in that they have a great group of defenseman, but no one that stands out as elite. Take your pick of Spurgeon, Dumba, and Brodin. They are all pretty close in terms of ability to control pace and make good plays, but rarely will one of them take over a game.

8. New York Islanders (3 pts) — Just like at center, the Isles are a committee team on defense. They lack a star guy on the back end, but Adam Pelech and Scott Mayfield are both playing a solid game right now.

9. Montréal Canadiens (2 pts) — Shea Weber played a great game five, and so did Jeff Petry. They are both big right handed defenseman and are both better than anyone on the Jets blue line.

10. Winnipeg Jets (1 pt) — Josh Morrissey was surprisingly and sneakily good while sweeping Edmonton, but he is the worst on this list.

Goaltender

1. Tampa Bay Lightning (10 pts) — Andrei Vasilevskiy always keeps his team in the game and gives the Bolts another chance to win the cup this season.

2. Winnipeg Jets (9 pts) — Connor Hellebuyck is not far behind Vasilevskiy, if he is at all.

3. Montréal Canadiens (8 pts) — The series would be over already if not for Price. A few more vintage performances and they might just be flying to Winnipeg.

4. Vegas Golden Knights (7 pts) — Marc-Andre Fleury continues to play at a high level, as he has for his entire legendary career, but he needs to close the series.

5. New York Islanders (6 pts) — Ilya Sorokin was so good against Pittsburgh and will need to keep it up against Boston.

6. Minnesota Wild (5 pts) — Cam Talbot is doing his best to steal this series for Minnesota. Two shutouts in six games is exceptional, but I would be shocked if he kept this up.

7. Boston Bruins (4 pts) — Tuukka Rask left early from the bubble last year, so his potential to be great and steal a series might not be fresh on our minds, but if vintage Rask shows up, he is one of the best.

8. Colorado Avalanche (3 pt) — Grubauer was so good during the regular season, but wasn't really tested too much against the Blues. I have my doubts, but it does feel weird to have him as the worst of the bunch. That just speaks to the level of play from all these goalies... Sorry!

9. Toronto Maple Leafs (2 pts) — Jack Campbell hasn't been bad by any means, but he, too, has to close out the series. This list is so strong, that's the only reason he finds himself near the bottom.

10. Carolina Hurricanes (1 pts) — Alex Nedeljkovic made some of the best saves of the first round, but he wasn't perfect and he is a rookie. There's still much to prove.

Tallying the Points!

1. Tampa Bay Lightning — 30 pts.

T2. New York Islanders — 18 pts.

T2. Winnipeg Jets — 18 pts.

T4. Boston Bruins — 17 pts.

T4. Colorado Avalanche — 17 pts.

6. Vegas Golden Knights — 16 pts.

7. Carolina Hurricanes — 14 pts.

8. Montréal Canadiens — 13 pts.

T9. Minnesota Wild — 11 pts.

T9. Toronto Maple Leafs — 11 pts.

Again, this is no fool-proof guessing strategy. Also of importance are the injuries that went into the center depth rankings, which significantly hurt the Maple Leafs and also the Avalanche. The Jets look very good across these three measures and perhaps the center depth and goaltending in Winnipeg can compensate for the weaker blue line and win them the North division. It is also immediately noticeable how undervalued both Colorado, Vegas, and Toronto are. Regardless, the Tampa Bay Lightning are the best in all three categories, so that makes them my pick to win the Stanley Cup for the second year in a row.

Follow Peter on Twitter @MuffinHockey and check out his articles at the Stanford Daily Newspaper and The Hockey Writers.